Chinese credit policy tightening obvious signs, such as steel overcapacity industry raise money more difficult, which makes the ore buyers cash shortage, unable to cash to buy port spot iron ore, only through the credit card payment from seaborne iron ore, so last week, the Western Australia and Brazil to China's iron ore price rose, but in the long run, the steel capital shortage will appear gradually, iron ore imports or suppressed, Capesize or regain their losses.
Last Friday (November 8th), the latest data Chinese customs releases shows, this year October iron ore imports 67830000 tons, fell 8%. This reflects the domestic environmental protection war already start shooting, steel production was inhibited, steel demand is gradually weakening. In addition, the iron and steel industry in October Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell 1.7, to close at 47.5, suggesting that the steel raw material purchasing intention downlink, industry contraction intensifies.
In November 8th, the Third Plenary Session convened, economic policy is new, tighter lending environment has changed the situation, in this summer's Mini stimulus. Norway ship Broker's Firm (RS Platou) pointed out, Chinese each big bank lending quotas before the end of 11 has bottomed out, the approval of new loans is unlikely, especially for such as steel overcapacity, raise money more difficult.
Although Chinese iron ore demand dropped significantly, but last week Capesize still rise. Western Australia and Qingdao, to China voyage to iron ore freight rose at about $1. RS Platou analysis, freight rate appears rising trend, and domestic banks to tighten lending iron ore buyers unable to cash to buy port spot only by credit card payment of seaborne imports of iron ore are closely related to. However, the Capesize market short term is positive, but with monetary tightening, steel production will continue to decline, which for the next iron ore import shipping markets. Therefore, for Capesize ship owner, in November the market doomed ups and downs.